Young stars under microscope in Anaheim
Solutions south of first line equally important
Also: Quick for Vezina; Plus/Minus a Team Stat?

by Josh Brewster | Hockeytalk.biz

JANUARY 18, 2012 -- ANAHEIM -- Before the Anaheim Ducks awakened from their slumbers and rattled off victories in five of their last six games--losing only once, in overtime—the team’s young stars faced intense scrutiny.

Captain and top-line center Ryan Getzlaf (left) was having a truly poor season by his standards, scoring only six goals and 19 assists in his first 38 games. Wing Bobby Ryan struggled similarly, with 13 goals and eight assists in the first 38.

Then came General Manager Bob Murray’s January 4th pronouncement that his star players would be the ones who “decide” whether they stay or go.

Murray’s insistence that the team would not take draft choices in return for any of their young starts is rooted in the here and now. As in, we’re here, and we need to sell hockey tickets now.

“We play in southern California,” Murray explained recently. “It won’t go over going to the bottom for a few years like other teams do and getting a first-round pick and then a third and then a first, building that way. I’d love to do that some day but it won’t be done in southern California because there’ll be no one left in the building. That’s why I’ve got to listen to anybody talking about any of our players.”

An especially comforting statement for Ducks fans’ sake. For every Corey Perry (1st Round, 2003) or Bobby Ryan (1st round 2005), there’s a potential Stanislav Chistov (2001) or Alexei Smirnov (2000).  Telling fans that a young star has been dealt but hey, we'll get another one within a few years, folks, really, we mean it, is just not going to work and Murray is right to announce as much.

A good amount of trade speculation in Anaheim has revolved around Getzlaf, the 6’5” center who has won a Stanley Cup and Olympic gold, and won’t turn 27 until next May. 

Setting aside whispers about goaltender Jonas Hiller's future, the remainder of the major trade speculation has been directed toward Bobby Ryan, (left) who won’t turn 25 until March. Most “experts” believe that Ryan, not Getzlaf, will be the trade bait dangled most tantalizingly before other GM’s. The winger scored 30 goals in each of the past three seasons, but until the turnaround, had 13 goals and eight assists over the first 38 games of the season, on pace to finish in the high 20’s goal-wise.

As for reigning Hart Trophy winner Corey Perry, he’s clearly not going anywhere although Murray didn’t specifically say it. Aside from his MVP status, Perry (20-17-37 in 44GP) has been one of the only consistent Ducks.

Now, Ryan is on a tear after a 4-3-7 stretch over the past six games. Getzlaf has one goal and five assists since Murray suggested that it was up to the players to prove that they shouldn’t be traded.

Age is a major complicating factor in the discussion of whether to trade any of the three.

It’s one thing for Montreal to trade Michael Cammalleri, who turns 30 in June and was not developed by that club. Calgary sent the Habs Rene Bourque, who turned 30 a month ago, and likewise was not drafted by the Flames.

It’s quite another to contemplate dealing one of your homegrown stars who are still in their mid-20s. Never mind what the media runs with; they love to speculate on big names.

KEY QUESTION: WHAT'S THE RETURN?

What’s hard for Bob Murray is, since he’s not taking draft choices in return for any of his young stars—and shouldn’t—what kind of player(s) come back if he deals Getzlaf or Ryan (assuming that Perry isn’t going anywhere)?

Does Tampa send Steve Stamkos? Does Vancouver offer Ryan Kesler, Pittsburgh, Evgeni Malkin? Toronto, Phil Kessel, Brian Burke doing his ol’ pal Murray a solid?

Not likely.

What about Shea Weber for Bobby Ryan? Weber is 26 years of age. Seems perfect.

Won’t happen.

Stop and think about how difficult it is to draft and develop a 6’4”, 221 lb. center who’s proven that when healthy he can pop a point-per-game. Who can miss 15 or so games per season and still come up with 50 or more assists, as he did in 2009-10 and 2010-11.  Murray would be well served to wait until next Fall to see whether Getzlaf can get his mental game together and get back to a point-per-game pace.  It's awfully hard to find another one like him, at his age.

As for Ryan, peculation from reliable sources indicate that it may well be that he is the most likely to be traded, if any of Murray’s homegrown stars are moved. But when thinking of potentially dealing away the player drafted in the number two slot behind Sidney Crosby, only young wingers such as Jamie Benn, Loui Eriksson, James Neal, Patrick Kane or Thomas Vanek would offer requisite compensation.  Are their respective GM's eager to give any of them away?

As for accepting a package of players and picks in return for a proven star, all Hockeytalk can say is beware.

For while the media will always speculate about stars, the secret to the Ducks’ failings this season are found south of the first line.

Until lately, Saku Koivu wasn’t producing what the club needed from a second-line center, just five goals and 10 assists in 30 games. Over his last eight games, he’s awakened to produce four goals and six assists, his best stretch of the season.  A return to form, full-time, would be welcome.

Jason Blake was injured for most of the first half, Andrew Cogliano only recently began producing. The team has gone through a revolving door of young forwards. The club has burned huge amounts of frequent flyer miles promoting and demoting the likes of Brandon McMillan, Maxime Macenauer, Andrew Gordon, Nick Bonino, Matt Beleskey and others.

A major overhaul of the depth ranks of forwards doesn’t make for sexy sound bites. However, it’s exactly what the Ducks need, as evidenced by the fact that contributions from the returning Blake (10 shots, two goals and an assist in Sunday’s win in Vancouver), Cogliano (1-2-3 in last 5GP), also Nik Hagman (a solid pickup by Murray) and Bonino have helped fuel the Ducks’ resurgence.

So, while speculation rages that either one or both of Bobby Ryan or Ryan Getzlaf may be dealt, it appears more likely that if the club’s stars continue to produce and make the Ducks competitive (read: still able to sell tickets) over the second half of the season, then trade deadline day may yield some unlikely surprises for the Ducks, i.e., that their top three star forwards—especially Ryan and Getzlaf—don’t move at all, despite intense speculation otherwise.

The ‘Untouchables’

Reading between the lines of Murray’s January 4th comments, it’s easy to speculate--and this is pure speculation--that the two Ducks most likely to be dealt may be Teemu Selanne and Saku Koivu.

Why?

Because GM Murray said that they wouldn’t be, that’s why.

Murray referred to the pair—each of whom have no-trade clauses in their contracts—as his only ‘untouchable’ players. Consider: If the Ducks aren’t headed for the post-season (and most likely they’re not), then Murray would have to listen to offers—even for draft picks in return—for the two aging legends. If a contender such as the Rangers, Bruins or Red Wings were to come calling, hoping to “rent” Koivu or Selanne—both are under deals that expire at season’s end—then while draft picks or an assortment of prospects won’t be enough to deal away any of his top-line stars, it could be more than enticing enough to ask either of his two ‘untouchables’ whether they are willing to waive their no-trade clause(s).

AROUND THE NHL:

Mike Green’s value:

Capitals defenseman Mike Green will undergo abdominal surgery and is expected to miss four to six weeks, likely the latter.

Washington’s record with Green: 9-1-0. Without Green: 15-16-7.

Cherry gets it right re odd timeout:

New York Islanders Coach Jack Capuano is a relative newcomer to the NHL coaching game. Sunday night, with his club leading the Detroit Red Wings, 5-1, called a timeout with 30 seconds left in the game.

“How anyone could be so stupid and call a timeout with 30 seconds to go,” Don Cherry opined on Hockey Night in Canada, “You young coaches, never do that.”

Quick for the Vezina, hands-down:

It will be interesting to see whether Jonathan Quick (left) of the LA Kings is considered for the Vezina trophy. Simply put, Tukka Rask’s and Tim Thomas’ numbers are similar, as are Henrik Lundqvist’s and Martin Biron’s. No disrespect to Boston or New York goaltending, but Quick is the Kings this season. His backup, Jon Bernier, hasn’t made up for the club’s lack of scoring. Quick has carried the Kings regardless of whether they’re scoring or not. Leave the Jennings Trophy for the great tandems. In Quick’s case, he’s the NHL’s best. Too bad he plays on the West Coast, where the hockey spotlight isn’t nearly as bright amongst national media. Quick deserves the full spotlight.

Plus/minus is a team stat:

Plus/minus is a poor measuring stick of individual performance. If plus/minus isn’t mostly a team stat, then why, when you look to the statistical leader board in that category, you always see groups of players from the same team?

As of 1/17/12:

Boston Bruins: 6 of the top 12 +/- 

Detroit Red Wings: 4 of the top 12 +/-

1 Tyler Seguin BOS C +35

2 Patrice Bergeron BOS C +27

3 Brad Marchand BOS L +27

4 Ian White DET D +26

5 Zdeno Chara BOS D +25

6 Johnny Boychuk BOS D +24

7 Johan Franzen DET R +24

8 Marian Hossa CHI R +23

9 Nicklas Lidstrom DET D +23

10 Todd Bertuzzi DET R +22

11 Michael Del Zotto NYR D +22

12 Chris Kelly BOS C +21

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