Do the math
Evidence shows an uphill battle for playoff spot
by Karen Francis
Hockeytalk.biz

MARCH 9, 2010 -- ANAHEIM -- For a team that is supposed to be fighting for a playoff spot, this is not the way to get things done. 

Ryan Getzlaf

On Sunday night the Ducks blew a 3-0 lead only to lose 4-3 in a shootout to Montreal.  It was the second time in a week that the Ducks have blown a lead after sacrificing a 2-0 lead against Colorado last Wednesday.  This is getting to be a bad habit.

Against Montreal, the Ducks played well in the first period.  But they did not continue to play well and it cost them. 

“Turnover, after turnover, after turnover, led to letting them back in the hockey game,” was coach Randy Carlyle’s assessment.  “We have to take responsibility for that. We did a lot of good things in the game.  The second period was difficult for us as they turned it up.  They forechecked harder; they pinched their defense; they got four men involved. We weathered that storm and I thought we were doing okay.  We made some mistakes with the puck late in the hockey game and it cost us.”

Montreal’s first goal came as a result of Ryan Getzlaf’s misplaced pass in the second period.  With just under two minutes to play, another turnover by Getzlaf, this time in the defensive zone, put the Canadiens within a goal.  Having pulled the goalie for the extra attacker, Andrei Markov tied up the game with just :10.7 seconds left.

“We could have done a few different things in that situation that would have given us a better chance,” remarked Carlyle after the game.

Instead, their situation became overtime and then a shootout that ended strangely.  Up 1-0 in the shootout, it appeared that Jonas Hiller had stopped the final puck.  Not knowing where the puck was, Hiller stood up and in the process, the puck fell out of his equipment and rolled into the net.  After a brief review, the goal stood and the shootout went one more round before Tomas Plekanec ended the game for good.

“It was a play where I thought Hillsie had it,” Scott Niedermayer reflected.  “Then once he goes to relax he goes over and it pops out.  It’s unfortunate, but we shouldn’t have been in that position either.   The way we played earlier in the game, we should have been able to get those two points.”

They only got one point for their efforts, which was more than they got against Colorado.  And at this time of year, every point is critical.

Since coming back from the Olympic break, the Ducks are 0-2-1.  Prior to the break, they were just three points out of a playoff spot.  In this short time, the Ducks have slipped to 13^th in the Western Conference and are now six points out of a playoff spot. 

The Ducks had a franchise-record 11-game winning streak at home and they would need to continue that dominance to have a chance at the playoffs for the fifth year straight.  So far the Ducks have looked mediocre in their own building. 

There are 17 games left and the Ducks are at 30-27-8 with 68 points.  Realistically, they still would need 95 points to assure themselves of a playoff spot. 

Do the math.

The Ducks need 27 points in 17 games to reach 95 points.  That is 27 out of 34 points.   Or 13-4-1 to end the season. 

“Where we are at in the standings right now and the points that we needed, we can’t lose any extra points here,” said Saku Koivu.  “We have to be ready for the next one.  These next two weeks are going to be critical for us. We can make a difference and make a push if we’re successful on this one and that’s what we’re looking for.”

While not impossible, don’t go to Vegas with those odds.  Considering the daunting task ahead, it’s no wonder the Ducks only want to contemplate one game at a time. 

Everyone keeps talking about how the Ducks are a great team in the second half and how well they do at the end.  They certainly did that last year, just squeaking into the playoffs at the last moment.  Even GM Bob Murray showed his faith in the team’s ability by making minor tweaks at the trade deadline, rather than selling off assets.

Perhaps what the Ducks truly need to learn is how to be a great team in the first half of the season as well.  Right now, the hole that they dug for themselves at the beginning of the season really might be too deep to climb out.

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